Polymarket gives US stablecoin bill 89% chance of becoming law

The platform launched the betting market for the GENIUS Act after the US Senate passed it on Tuesday.

Cryptocurrency users are betting on the odds that US legislation to regulate payment stablecoins will move forward, following a crucial vote in the Senate and a public push from President Donald Trump to “get it to [his] desk.” 

As of Thursday, the online betting platform Polymarket shows an 89% chance of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, passing the US Senate and House of Representatives and being signed into law by the president before 2026. The Polymarket bet seemed to have been launched roughly 18 hours after the bill passed in the Senate in a 68-30 vote on Tuesday.

It’s unclear whether the bill will have enough support to pass the House in its current form or whether lawmakers could add amendments to address concerns over Trump’s connections to the crypto industry, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1. A majority of senators voted against a similar amendment before the final passage of the GENIUS Act, which moved the legislation to the House. 

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